| Risk | Price |
|---|---|
| 0.200 | — |
| 0.300 | — |
| 0.400 | — |
| 0.500 | — |
| 0.600 | — |
| 0.700 | — |
| 0.800 | — |
A composite 0-to-1 score placing BTC in its long-cycle risk regime — green readings near 0 mark deep-value buy zones, red readings near 1 mark cycle-top distribution zones.
Outliners Risk v2 combines a normalised Mayer Multiple (close / SMA200, 60%) with a log-regression deviation (40%). Anchors are fixed against BTC full history; the composite degrades gracefully to log-dev only for the first 199 days. See docs/RISK_METRIC.md for the full spec.
Below 0.30 = historically a generational buy. 0.30-0.60 = neutral mid-cycle territory (most of any cycle is spent here). Above 0.75 = late-cycle euphoria, distribute. The gauge in the hero strip and the colour ramp on the chart use the same scale.