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Recession Probability + Sahm Rule

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NY Fed smoothed recession probability + Claudia Sahm's real-time rule.

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What this chart shows
Methodology

RECPROUSM156N (FRED, monthly) = Smoothed US Recession Probability — Chauvet & Piger's dynamic-factor model, % chance the US is currently in recession. SAHMREALTIME (FRED, monthly) = Sahm Rule indicator: 3-month moving average of UNRATE minus its 12-month minimum; ≥ 0.5 has historically coincided with recession onset.