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Treasury Yield Spreads — 10Y-2Y · 10Y-3M

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The two canonical recession-watch spreads. Negative = curve inverted.

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What this chart shows
Methodology

T10Y2Y = DGS10 − DGS2; T10Y3M = DGS10 − DGS3MO (FRED daily). When the spread goes negative — long rates below short rates — the curve has inverted. Every US recession since 1969 was preceded by 10Y-3M inversion 6-18 months ahead.