Political Market Regimes

S&P 500 returns across every US presidential term since 1929, coloured by party in power. NBER recession bands overlaid in grey.

Average S&P return — Democrats

+9.3% CAGR

across 8 terms

Average S&P return — Republicans

+3.7% CAGR

across 9 terms

Dem in office

Rep in office

NBER recession

President	Party	From	To	Years	Total return	CAGR
Trump II	Rep	2025-01	now	1.3	+24.3%	+17.6%
Biden	Dem	2021-01	2025-01	4.0	+55.7%	+11.7%
Trump I	Rep	2017-01	2021-01	4.0	+69.6%	+14.1%
Obama	Dem	2009-01	2017-01	8.0	+182.1%	+13.8%
G. W. Bush	Rep	2001-01	2009-01	8.0	-40.0%	-6.2%
Clinton	Dem	1993-01	2001-01	8.0	+209.8%	+15.2%
G. H. W. Bush	Rep	1989-01	1993-01	4.0	+51.2%	+10.9%
Reagan	Rep	1981-01	1989-01	8.0	+117.7%	+10.2%
Carter	Dem	1977-01	1981-01	4.0	+27.9%	+6.3%
Ford	Rep	1974-08	1977-01	2.5	+27.3%	+10.4%
Nixon	Rep	1969-01	1974-08	5.5	-20.5%	-4.0%
L. B. Johnson	Dem	1963-11	1969-01	5.2	+46.1%	+7.6%
Kennedy	Dem	1961-01	1963-11	2.8	+16.1%	+5.4%
Eisenhower	Rep	1953-01	1961-01	8.0	+129.4%	+10.9%
Truman	Dem	1945-04	1953-01	7.8	+86.0%	+8.3%
F. D. Roosevelt	Dem	1933-03	1945-04	12.1	+106.3%	+6.2%
Hoover	Rep	1929-03	1933-03	4.0	-77.1%	-30.8%

Long-running joke: stocks go up regardless of who's in the White House. The data mostly agrees — S&P 500 CAGR is positive under almost every president since 1929. The exceptions are presidents who took office at a market top (Hoover 1929, G.W. Bush 2001 dot-com, Trump-I 2020 COVID). Crisis-onset matters more than party affiliation. Use this view to anchor cycle-aware narrative without falling for partisan timing illusions.